Understanding the Ratings
The Racing-Edge ratings are compiled by allocating a score and a weighting to a number of different form factors that we have found to have the most effect on a horses chance of winning.
They provide you with a consistently good snapshot of which horses are the strongest in a race (blue) and which are the weakest (red), and makes your selection of winners far easier by narrowing down the field to the strongest few horses.
The aim of the ratings is for the winner to come from the blue rated selections - it may not necessarily be the top rated horse as other factors can influence the selection process which we discuss below. The ratings come into their own when used in conjunction with filters and other form reading, including such things as jockey, market trends, available value, trainer comment etc.
Before using the ratings it is imperative that you understand what you are looking at - below is an example of how the ratings are displayed and an explanation of each aspect in turn:
| Brighton |
20/09/2005 |
|||||
|
14.00 |
H.B.L.B. Nursery Handicap Class 4, |
5f 213y |
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|
No. |
Horse |
Draw |
Score |
Therm |
Trainer | Jockey |
|
8 |
Prince Rama |
9 |
90.00% |
8.00 |
B J Meehan | Paul Eddery |
|
4 |
Welcome Approach |
7 |
70.00% |
6.00 |
J R Weymes | S Drowne |
|
10 |
Caloosa |
10 |
66.67% |
5.67 |
C A Dwyer | Hayley Turner (3) |
|
7 |
Indian Wizard |
1 |
63.33% |
5.33 |
M R Channon | C Catlin |
|
1 |
Carmenero |
5 |
60.00% |
5.00 |
W R Muir | Martin Dwyer |
|
9 |
Franky'n'jonny |
3 |
56.67% |
4.67 |
I A Wood | C Haddon (5) |
|
2 |
Bridal Path |
4 |
43.33% |
3.33 |
Sir Mark Prescott | S Sanders |
|
6 |
Indecent Proposal |
8 |
43.33% |
3.33 |
D R C Elsworth | L Keniry |
|
5 |
Scarlet Flyer |
2 |
40.00% |
3.00 |
G L Moore | R L Moore |
|
3 |
Spider Power |
6 |
16.67% |
0.67 |
Saeed bin Suroor | K McEvoy |
The grey bar at the top displays the race meeting, date and race time, distance and race type for each race.
The title bar lists the horse number and name; where its has been drawn (if applicable), a score rating and a therm rating which are explained below, the name of the trainer and the quoted jockey.
The first important thing to note is that the horses are listed in reverse order, with the worst horses in red at the top of the list and the best horses being shown in blue towards the bottom of the list. Horses shown in purple are un-raced. The remainder of the runners are shown in black.
Red horses are the worst rated horses in the race and more likely to lose than win.
Black horses are the horses that make up the field, they have a chance of winning or losing and could go either way. Sometimes a horse can be shown in black with a worse score / therm than a red horse. This is because there is a certain aspect of the horse that makes it unpredictable E.g. it goes well on a particular going, likes a particular track, or is erratic in its form. Any horse shown in black below the blue horses is a known non-runner at the time of posting the ratings and will have a NR flag next to it.
Blue horses are the best rated horses in the race with "the" best horse(s) at the very bottom. The number of blue horses highlighted will depend on how many places are being paid for the race, and whether there are joint scored horses that would warrant more horses being highlighted than there are actual places. In the case of a blue horse becoming a non runner the next best black horse can be regarded as blue.
Purple horses are horses that have not raced before or have no relevant form. Little is known about them, therefore it is difficult to ascertain on paper how the horse will run. Purple horses are not included in the ratings hierarchy, as we have found that these horses tend to be priced by word of mouth and opinion, and are therefore open to misinterpretation and subject to volatile results. When using the data, it should be born in mind that any horse that is shown in purple could win - they are unknown entities.
The Draw
The draw is very relevant in flat racing and is shown in the 3rd column. Different courses have varying levels of advantage from the draw over different distances. Every serious punter should obtain the layout of each course and learn the varying levels of advantage from each draw at different distances.
Score and Therm Ratings
The Score column gives the horse's theoretical percentage chance of losing the race - the higher the % the more likely it is that the horse will lose.
The Therm column indicates the number of other runners in the race that could potentially beat the horse. A high therm rating indicates a lot of potentially better horses in the race, a low or zero therm rating indicates that the horse has a good chance of winning the race outright or being placed.
Both the score and therm ratings are theoretical ratings and therefore may sometimes show a score of 0% or 100%, the figures are a guide, as obviously no horse has a 100% chance of losing or winning a race
Using the Ratings
The ratings give an indication of each horses strength and chance of winning,
however the top
rated horses in two different races could also have very different chances of
winning a race. For example:
Race 1 could have a top rated horse as follows:
|
Bendarshaan |
2 |
19.44% |
1.33 |
Race 2 could have a top rated horse like this:
|
Hits Only Jude |
8 |
17.33% |
0.67 |
On their own they are both the best rated horses in their individual race, however
In Race 1 if the 2nd and 3rd ranked horse have a score of 22% and a therm of 1.5
And Race 2 the 2nd and 3rd ranked horses have a score of 35% and a therm of 3.5
It could then be interpreted that the horse in race 2 has a better chance of beating the field than the horse in race 1 as it has a greater margin to the next best horse.
The closer the margins between the better rated horses, the harder it is to decide which of them is most likely to win the race.
However, you may then factor in the size of the field and the race type - if you said that Race 1 has 7 runners in the race and Race 2 has 20, or if you said Race 1 was a Class 4 handicap and Race 2 was a a Banded Apprentice race, you may then say that although it has a wider margin between the next best horse in the race - Hits Only Jude has a harder race to win.
Jockeys are not factored into the ratings, as these can change right up to the off and different jockeys go through good and bad patches. This could have an impact on your selection, if for example you have a weak jockey riding the top rated horse and a strong jockey riding the 2nd rated horse.
Horse Strength and Market Movements
The ratings sort the horses into the strongest and weakest order from what we know about them on paper. It obviously doesn't mean that red horses will never win a race or that the best rated blue horse will win every race, however it should give you a good indication as to whether a horse is as good as other sources say it is, and that is essential information to have about each race.
This is where the ratings should help you to identify which favourites are weaker than they are perceived to be and which outsiders are stronger, and lead you to the value bets within each race.
That is not to say that a favourite that is a red rated horse will automatically lose - but more that maybe it should not be the price it is and then scrutinised very closely to ascertain if there is value to be had.
Jockeys
Jockeys are not included in the ratings calculations and should be examined very carefully in conjunction with the ratings
The Pareto principle states that the top 20% of jockeys will win 80% of the races. Always bear that in mind if you have a poor jockey on a top rated horse - the horse may be good, but if its not ridden well it has little chance of winning.
To draw parallels, if you put an ordinary driver in a Ferrari and Michael Schumacher in a Ford Mondeo and put them both out on a racetrack, which car would you favour to win the race?
Try to keep a list of the best jockeys and update it regularly - these are the people that will win most of the races. If your jockey isn't on the list then the statistics are already against you.
An excellent source of specific jockey data for each race is the Racing Post website - within the Betting Shop section it will bring up each horses jockey and their strike rate over the last 14 days and at the course.
If you have a top rated horse that has a jockey on it that has hasn't won a race in his last 27 rides and never won at the course, compared to the 3rd rated horse whose jockey has a 20% strike rate over the past 14 days and a good course record - which would you back?
Try to also keep a list of the jockeys that receive adverse press. If they are riding a short priced favourite there will be a lot of money on them in the market and it will be cheap to lay that horse on the exchanges. Watch the price movements closely and watch the place market prices in relation to the win market. If the horse is a 15/8 favourite and trading at 3.00 in Betfair with place odds of 1/5, the Betfair place market should be around 1.4 - if it is trading at 1.80 something is not right.
The Live market
There is a view that the true live market no longer lies with the on course bookmaker, but has been replaced by Betfair. Betfair by all accounts is a real time market and is the best indication of the true market opinion of a horse.
The live market is now a complex beast. Different market signals can mean different things to different people, and everyone will have their own individual interpretation of what a particular movement could mean.
For example.
A favourite starts off at 2-1 and drifts to 4-1 before the off.
To one person this could mean that the horse did not look good in the paddock or there is some negative information around about how its going to run.
The conspiracy theorist may believe there is a "race fix" in operation.
To someone else, it could mean that the 2nd favourite looked very good, or information has come to light that the horse is much better than we had been led to believe and the betting public have now got wind of it. This will mean a large amount of money being bet on the 2nd favourite bringing its odds in and the favourites out.
To someone else they may now look at the 2-1 favourite at 4-1 and see exceptionally good value.
There is a lot of information about a horse that is not available to the general public but will most definitely affect the amount that is bet on it - likewise false rumours can have a big impact as well. How many times have you seen a horse bet in massively, only to then watch it come nowhere
Although you should be mindful of market movements, don't let it cloud everything else - plenty of drifters win races, and plenty of heavily bet horses lose. It is a factor to bear in mind - when you see large volumes of money queuing up to be matched on the exchanges you know someone, somewhere has a strong opinion on that horse.
Going
The going has a big effect on how horses run. Try to avoid meetings where a sudden change in weather has occurred - horses are entered into races to run on a particular type of going - last minute changes to this will affect how the horse runs. Alternatively you will need to determine whether the going change helps or hinders your horse.
We have found that soft going in Flat races and heavy going in National Hunt races produces unpredictable results.
Unraced Horses
When backing, be aware that unraced (purple) horses are not taken into account in the ratings hierarchy. Therefore be wary of backing in these type of races (especially if there are unraced horses in the top 3 in the betting) as they are unknown entities - all you know about them is their trainer, jockey, breeding etc. What you don't know is how the horse is going to run in a real race and whether the horse has a realistic chance of winning or just out to gain some race experience. Obviously this should not impact you laying as it wont matter if it is a purple horse that beats your selection - just so long as your selection loses. (unless you plan to lay a purple horse)
Unraced horses that have a good jockey on them are more likely to have a chance than if they have an unknown - if they are just out for a run to gain experience, the yard wont book a good jockey to ride it, if it has a chance of winning they will.
General Points to Note
In theory, the ratings should become more and more accurate as each new season progresses and more current season data becomes available to analyse.
Pay particular attention to large priced blue horses where value can be found - especially in the each way / place markets.
Banded race meetings and apprentice racing is notoriously erratic and care should be taken in these races.
Races with a small amount of runners can sometimes be run at a false pace which can affect the form and the ratings. Again be wary of relying on the ratings for these type of races.
Races with high amounts of runners produce bigger odds but can cause crowding of good horses and again produce unpredictable results.
When a yard has more than one runner in a race, look to see which horse the stable jockey chooses - he will know them both and will likely choose the better one.
We have found that on days where there are a large amount of race meetings such as Bank Holidays and Boxing Day, results can be erratic.
All ratings have good and bad patches - use the historic data and database to view results over a longer period.
Filters
We have been asked on many occasions how to filter the ratings. Everybody will have their own views on the best way to filter, however a general view that we at Racing-Edge have are as follows:
Avoid Banded racing
Avoid apprentice races
Avoid races with less than seven runners
Avoid races with more than fourteen runners
Avoid races with all female jockeys
Avoid races with purple horses unless they are big priced outsiders
Look for large therm / score margins between the blue horses and the black horses